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Further
fundamental understanding of climate predictability at seasonal
to centennial time scales
Develop and promote
standard metrics and practices for evaluating predictability
and prediction
Encourage coordinated
U.S. participation in emerging international multi-model predictiona
nd attribution activities
Quantify prediction
uncertainty and its sources
Assess predictability
of key climate forcings
Improve
provision of climate forecast information, particularly with respect
to drought and other extreme events
Assess baseline predictability
of drought on weeks to decades.
Coordinate and “advertise” scientific
support for multi-agency research efforts that address local
and remote sea-air-land mechanisms of drought and its predictability,
at interannual to decadal timescales (joint with GEWEX)
Assess possible future
changes in drought
Identify/collect/document
monsoon indices to observe and predict (help from POSP)
Assess baseline simulation
capability of complete annual cycle of global monsoon and its
variability, including diurnal component (help from PSMIP)
Assess baseline predictability
of identified monsoon indices
Quantify relative roles
of ocean/atmosphere and land/atmosphere processes (with POSP & PSMIP)
Assess potential future
changes of global monsoons
Foster
research and development of prediction systems for climate impacts
on ecosystems
Improve understanding
of oceanic and atmospheric patterns, and consequent forcing
mechanisms, that organize ecosystems and determine the spatial
and temporal distribution of water resources. (with PSMIP)
Quantify the predictability
of key oceanic and atmospheric processes that influence ecosystems
and water resources.
Develop tools for transforming
climate forecasts into ecosystem and water resource forecasts
at lead times from sub-seasonal to centennial and at appropriate
spatial scales
Develop ability to quantify
relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and natural
climate variability to observed long-term changes in ecosystems
and water resources
Enable
use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support
Develop integrated
linkages to interdisciplinary programs: NOAA RISA and OGP,
IRI, IPCC, CCSP, NASA efforts, NSF NEON / CUAHSI / CLEANR
/ ORION, Ocean Observing Systems, public entities such
as WGA / NGA.
Promote/support
projects that link climate observations, forecasts, and
scenarios with resource assessments and forecasts
Promote sustained
interactions with other disciplines and research communities
to ensure delivery of “usable science”
Emphasize spatial
and temporal scales of information needed for applications.
Contribute support for the development, use, interpretation,
and evaluation of tools (e.g. downscaling) employed by
applications.
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