| PPAI Meetings and
Documents
U.S. CLIVAR Summit - 2008
July 15-17 - Presentations from the panel's breakouts
during the summit in Irvine, California
U.S.
CLIVAR Summit - 2007 July 23-25
- Presentations from the panel's breakouts
during the summit in Annapolis, Maryland
U.S.
CLIVAR Summit - 2006 July 26-28 Presentations from
the panel's breakouts during the summit in Breckinridge, Colorado
AGU Special Session - December 2006 PPAI Panel
Meeting - December 14, 2006
- Minutes (pdf)
- DecVar discussion (pdf)
A36:
Increasing Credibility of Climate Predictions
Conveners:
Alex Hall, UCLA, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Lisa Goddard, International Research Institute for Climate and Society,
Columbia University
The purpose of this session is to examine the credibility of state-of-the-art
climate predictions from seasonal to centennial time scales, with an
eye toward improving them. On seasonal to interannual time scales, prediction
skill can be evaluated statistically by comparing ongoing model predictions
to the climate record as it evolves. However, to improve predictions
on these time scales, it is necessary to identify and understand the
physical mechanisms responsible for predictability and ensure they are
properly included in models. On the longer time scales of climate change,
it is challenging to evaluate prediction credibility, let alone improve
it. The variation of the past century is the only example of forced
climate change that has been adequately sampled on a global scale, so
rigorous evaluation of model performance is limited to this single realization.
Moreover, while current models give widely diverging predictions when
identical future forcing scenarios are imposed on them, are all able
to simulate a “hindcast” of the past century within observational
constraints when realistic past forcing is imposed. Unlike the seasonal
to interannual case, the observed climate record is of limited utility
in determining which future projections are most realistic. On these
time scales, the community is therefore forced to rely almost exclusively
on the plausibility of the physical mechanisms underlying simulated
climate change. Because of the importance of physical mechanisms in
establishing prediction credibility and improving it on all time scales,
we solicit papers that identify these mechanisms or evaluate their plausibility.
We also solicit work on statistical methods demonstrating prediction
reliability on seasonal to interannual time scales, and novel techniques
for assessing model credibility on longer time scales.
U.S.
CLIVAR Summit - 2005 August 15-18 -
The PPAI panel met in Keystone, Colorado to discuss ongoing and
future panel activities. Presentations made to the panel are provided
below.
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