Predictability, Predictions and Applications Interface panel (PPAI)
1. Review, prioritize, and coordinate US plans to characterize predictability, and demonstrate improved prediction capabilities, on sub-seasonal, seasonal, S-I, decadal, and century and longer time scales as necessary to achieve the goals of CLIVAR.
2. Interface with agency and CCSP activities and groups (e.g. NOAA-NMFS, IRI, and RISAs; NASA-RESACs, RACs, and ESIPs) to identify user requirements for useful climate information, improve the communication of these requirements, and encourage development of appropriate tools and approaches for improved decision support capabilities
3. Coordinate US efforts to insure advances in prediction research have appropriate connections and pathways into operational forecast system development
4. Develop and encourage mechanisms (e.g. community workshops, commissioned studies, Focus Groups) to further the development and implementation of a research strategy, including filling gaps. Advise on the adequacy and effectiveness of Focus Group plans and their implementation.
5. Advise US CLIVAR on research priorities, identify research gaps, and develop suitable milestones to promote funding opportunities. Help foster and coordinate joint agency participation and support of relevant activities.
6. Publicize accomplishments and demonstrated progress in research leading to improved prediction capabilities and applications of prediction information
7. Coordinate with other national and international activities to develop integrated, efficient, and effective overall international plans and activities.
8. Liaise with other US CLIVAR panels and Focus Groups to insure prediction is considered in their efforts
Scoping Questions
a) What further activities are needed to coordinate community evaluation of climate simulations and detection and attribution studies (link to PSMIP)?
b) How can this panel help coordinate evaluation of tools, diagnostics, and assessments used for simulation and prediction of climate on sub-seasonal to century time scales. (link to PSMIP and POSP)?
c) How should this panel help coordinate data assimilation activities for initialization of forecast systems on seasonal and longer time scales. (link to POSP) [links to GEWEX for LDAS, to GODAE for ODAS]
d) Should this panel assess adequacy of observing system for prediction purposes and recommend needed improvements? [links to POSP, US-GEOSS, GCOS, NOAA-COSc, etc]
e) Will this panel address regional modeling, upscaling and downscaling approaches and fidelity? If so, how?Phenomena, observations and synthesis panel (POSP)
1. Review, prioritize, and coordinate US plans for relevant studies needed to identify and elucidate observable physical coupled ocean-atmosphere-land mechanisms, processes, and phenomena in the global climate system. Studies such as diagnostics and evaluation of observations and model results, characterization of the coupled system, and others are envisioned to be addressed.
2. In consultation with other groups, assess elements of, identify needs of, and coordinate plans for the sustained climate observation system especially for the ocean (including the development, assemblage, and curatorship of climate records), to improve monitoring, prediction, and simulation of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-landsystem. Additionally, guide and assess efforts to extend the record of past climate variability through assembly of quality-controlled instrumental data sets & paleoclimatic data.
3. Identify, review, and prioritize regional observational efforts that should be pursued through limited deployments (aka enhanced monitoring) to advance our understanding of climate-relevant processes and phenomena
4. In consultation with other groups, assess and prioritize plans, and coordinate activities that lead to syntheses of observations and models in order to develop consistent four dimensional climate products (e.g. climate reanalyses).
5. Develop and encourage mechanisms (e.g. community workshops, commissioned studies, Focus Groups) to further the development and implementation of a research strategy, including filling gaps. Advise on the adequacy and effectiveness of Focus Group plans and implementation.
6. Advise US CLIVAR on research priorities, identify research gaps, and develop suitable milestones to promote funding opportunities. Help foster and coordinate joint agency participation and support of relevant activities
7. Coordinate with other national and international activities to develop integrated, efficient, and effective overall international plans and activities.
8. Publicize accomplishments and demonstrated progress in contributing towards a sustained observational system, identifying and understanding critical observable coupled phenomena, and developing assimilation/synthesis capabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system.
9. Liaise with other US CLIVAR panels and Focus Groups to insure relevant needs are considered in their efforts
Scoping Questions
a) What are the connections between variability of tropical and extratopical (including high-latitude) regions, between tropical basins, and what mechanisms govern these connections? Are these mechanisms evident in climate models?
b) What are the current needs of the tropical (ENSO, PIRATA, Indian Ocean) observing system? Is the current system sufficient?
c) Do we need more global sub-surface current measurements? Are existing satellite and in-situ data records sufficiently bias-free to detect changes associated with decadal variability? How do different observation systems characterize known variability patterns and trends? What trends have been detected?
d) How should observing systems be integrated/synthesized to address key questions, detect trends, etc?
e) How can this panel help coordinate evaluation of tools, diagnostics, and assessments used for simulation and prediction of climate on sub-seasonal to century time scales. (link to PPAIP and POSP)?Process studies and model improvement panel (PSMI)
1. Review, prioritize, and coordinate US plans for relevant process studies, CPTs and other investigations that lead to improved parameterizations of critical climate processes, better quantification of climate model uncertainties, and improved climate model fidelity as necessary to achieve the goals of CLIVAR.
2. Develop and encourage mechanisms (e.g. community workshops, commissioned studies, Focus Groups) to further the development and implementation of timely and relevant process studies and a research strategy, including filling gaps. Advise on the adequacy and effectiveness of Focus Group plans and their implementation.
3. Guide, assess, and coordinate efforts to improve utilization of process-oriented research and limited observation campaigns in parameterization and model development (especially in national and community model activities) through the use of CPT and similar frameworks
4. Advise US CLIVAR on research priorities, identify research gaps, and develop suitable milestones to promote funding opportunities. Help foster and coordinate joint agency participation and support of relevant activities
5. Coordinate with other national and international activities to develop integrated, efficient, and effective overall international plans and activities.
6. Publicize accomplishments and demonstrated progress in understanding of critical processes, characterizing model uncertainty, and improving the fidelity of climate models and their subcomponents.
7. Liaise with other US CLIVAR panels and Focus Groups to insure model process studies and model improvement needs are considered in their efforts
Scoping Questions
a) What are the successes and lessons learned through the pilot CPT projects? Should a post-pilot CPT program be initiated, and if so, how should it be implemented, what should be its focus?
b) How can this panel effectively foster the development of process studies critically needed for advances in climate prediction, such as those that have arisen in the past out of the previous basin panels or smaller grass-roots initiatives?
c) How can this panel insure process studies already underway link to parameterization development and other modeling efforts, especially those that are community-based or lead to testing and adaptation by operational and climate models?
d) Should this panel help identify systematic biases are evident in climate models and what strategies for addressing them are underway?
e) What further activities are needed to coordinate community evaluation of climate simulations and detection and attribution studies (link to PPAIP)?
f) How can this panel help coordinate evaluation of tools, diagnostics, and assessments used for simulation and prediction of climate on sub-seasonal to century time scales. (link to PPAIP and POSP)?