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US CLIVAR Panel Strategic Plans
| |
U.S.
CLIVAR
Panel Strategic
Plans
|
Prediction,
Predictability and Applications Interface Panel |
MISSION STATEMENT: Our mission
is to foster improved practices in the provision, validation and uses of
climate information and forecasts through coordinated participation within
the U.S. and international climate science and
applications communities.
PPAI GOALS
- Further
fundamental understanding of climate predictability
at seasonal to centennial time scales
- Develop and promote standard
metrics and practices for evaluating predictability and prediction
- Encourage coordinated U.S.
participation in emerging international multi-model predictiona nd attribution
activities
- Quantify prediction uncertainty
and its sources
- Assess predictability of key
climate forcings
- Improve
provision of climate forecast information, particularly with respect to drought
and other extreme events
- Assess baseline predictability of drought on weeks to decades.
- Coordinate
and “advertise” scientific support for multi-agency
research efforts that address local and remote sea-air-land mechanisms
of drought and its predictability, at interannual to decadal timescales (joint
with GEWEX)
- Assess possible future changes in drought
- Identify/collect/document monsoon indices to observe and predict (help
from POSP)
- Assess baseline simulation capability of complete annual cycle
of global monsoon and its variability, including diurnal component (help
from PSMIP)
- Assess baseline predictability of identified monsoon indices
- Quantify
relative roles of ocean/atmosphere and land/atmosphere processes (with
POSP & PSMIP)
- Assess potential future changes of global monsoons
- Foster
research and development of
prediction systems for climate impacts on ecosystems
- Improve understanding of oceanic and atmospheric patterns, and consequent
forcing mechanisms, that organize ecosystems and determine the spatial
and temporal distribution of water resources. (with PSMIP)
- Quantify the
predictability of key oceanic and atmospheric processes that influence
ecosystems and water resources.
- Develop tools for transforming climate forecasts
into ecosystem and water resource forecasts at lead times from sub-seasonal
to centennial and at appropriate spatial scales
- Develop ability to quantify
relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and natural climate
variability to observed long-term changes in ecosystems and water resources
- Enable
use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support
- Develop integrated linkages to interdisciplinary programs: NOAA RISA
and OGP, IRI, IPCC, CCSP, NASA efforts, NSF NEON / CUAHSI / CLEANR /
ORION, Ocean Observing Systems, public entities such as WGA / NGA.
- Promote/support
projects that link climate observations, forecasts, and scenarios with
resource assessments and forecasts
- Promote sustained interactions
with other disciplines and research communities to ensure delivery
of “usable
science”
- Emphasize spatial and temporal scales of information needed
for applications. Contribute support for the development, use, interpretation,
and evaluation of tools (e.g. downscaling) employed by applications.
ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF
GOALS (Next 1-3 years using only existing resources and leveraging)
- GOAL
1
- Propose working group to
assess current levels of predictability for seasonal-to-interannual
climate
- Coordinate with WGSIP Standards
Project to define best forecast practices
- Participate in the experimental
design of the COPES-TFSP Seasonal Prediction Experiment to ensure US
CLIVAR participation and representation
- Evaluation of current techniques
and methodologies for forecasting decadal variability (10-30 year timescale)
- Evaluation of current techniques
of coupled initialization for seasonal/interannual and decadal forecasting
(coordinate with WOAPS)
- Evaluate patterns of decadal
and climate change timescales (i.e. forced versus natural) and their
relationships in the context of decadal forecasting and climate change
detection/attribution (focused CMEP activity; analysis of natural versus
anthropogenic forcings)
- Endorse and strongly recommend
funding agency support for the next decadal variability workshop to
address these issues (spring 2007; coordinate with Vikram Mehta)
- GOAL 2
- Propose working group to facilitate the creation of a prototype National
Drought Attribution and Prediction Consortium (joint with POS)
- Coordinate
position papers (drawing from scientific and user community) on key drought-relevant
issues including definition(s), measurement strategies, research gaps,
and perceived model improvements necessary for improved simulation and
prediction of drought.
- Document metrics of extreme weather and climate (e.g. temperature,
precipitation, Frich et al. indices) (POSP)
- Assess model simulations of
extremes and potential changes in extremes.
- Assess baseline predictability
of extremes on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, including the characteristics
of weather within climate (within CMEP activity for CCSP 3.3)
- Quantify
connection between leading patterns of climate variability (e.g. ENSO,
PDO, AAO, NAO, climate change) and weather extremes (joint with POSP);
(within CMEP activity for CCSP 3.3)
- Propose working group to better understand and improve representation
of diurnal variability in dynamical models
- Draw on and encourage
work within NAME/MESA activities as well as Int’l
CLIVAR monsoon WGs to meet sub-goals of assessing baselines and quantifying
interactions between components of climate system (e.g. NAMAP2, NAME
CPT, NAME Tier 3)
- Assess potential future changes of global monsoons (within
CMEP activity)
- GOAL
3
- Develop better understanding of ocean climate patterns, and consequent
forcing mechanisms, that organize marine ecosystem response patterns
(with PSMIP)
- Quantify the predictability of key ocean and climate processes
that influence marine and terrestrial ecosystems of interest
- Nowcast current
and hindcast retrospective oceanic conditions in an ecosystem context
(with POSP)
- Develop tools for extending seasonal/interannual lead time
climate forecasts into S/I ecosystem forecasts at appropriate spatial
scales
- Assess potential climate change impacts on ecosystems based on
knowledge of forcing mechanisms
- Identify & distinguish
mechanisms for change versus slow variability of climate affecting
ocean and land
ecosystems
- GOAL
4
- US CLIVAR Applications Interface post-doctoral program
- Form proposal
for post-doctoral program
- Identify participating institutions (e.g.
RISAs, Natural Resource Management Institutions, EPA, DOT, FEMA,
etc.)
- Design/develop web-based tool for user feedback on US CLIVAR funded
(and related) science (together with USCO)
- Initiate compilation of
perceived research priorities for sectoral decision making
- Develop database
of US CLIVAR funded work (past & current) and
associated published research
- Implement search and feedback function
(much akin to Amazon.com)
- Coordinate and encourage multi-agency support
for development of web-based information delivery and decision support
tools
ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF
GOALS (Next 1-3 years using only existing resources
and leveraging and next 3-5 years and beyond)
- GOAL
1
- Coordinate with COPES Modeling Panel and the COPES-TFSP on the development
of a unified days to decades prediction strategy to be implemented by
2015.
- Develop a Quasi-Regular process for the assessment of prediction
skill
- Coordinate with WGCM and decadal variability community regarding
regular assessment of simulations of 20th and 21st century climate, and
long control runs, to understand relative roles of inherent versus forced
variability and climate system response in the context of existing and
new emissions scenarios in a focused CMEP context (e.g. new mitigation/adaptation
scenarios)
- GOAL
2
- Recommend metrics of extreme weather and climate for evaluating 20th
century observations and model simulations, and future climate change
projections (e.g. temperature, precipitation, Frich et al. indices) (joint
with POSP)
- Assess model simulations of extremes and potential changes
in extremes: (ongoing CMEP activity to perform analyses of AOGCM extremes
for assessment activities of CCSP and IPCC)
- Assess baseline predictability
of extremes on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, including the characteristics
of weather within climate: (ongoing CMEP activity)
- Quantify connection
between leading patterns of climate variability and weather extremes
(joint with POSP): (ongoing CMEP activity)
- GOAL
4
- US CLIVAR Applications Interface post-doctoral program
- Promote and initiate
program
- Coordinate annual meeting (say within CPASW) for post-doc reporting
on results, experience, lessons learned, future plans
- Web-based tool for
user feedback on US CLIVAR funded (and related) science (together with
USCO)
- Promote tool to decision makers as well as researchers and program
managers
- Review feedback from ‘users’.
Use to inform research priorities within US CLIVAR, and to update
web tool.
- Publish EOS or BAMS-type
article on benefits and lessons provided by such a research-feedback
tool
- Coordinate
and encourage multi-agency support for development of web-based information
delivery and decision support tools
Proposed Working Groups
- WG-1: Sub-Seasonal [Predictability] (promoted by all panels)
- Objectives:Improve understanding of the important mechanisms involved
in sub-seasonal variability, their mutual interactions, their predictability,
and the ability of current models to simulate them.
Duration: 2 years
Funding: Needed
- WG-2:
Drought (joint with POS)
- Objectives: Facilitate the creation of a prototype National Drought
Attribution and Prediction Consortium.
Duration: 2 years
Funding: Needed
- WG-3: Baseline Predictability
- Objectives: Assess current levels of SI predictability as well as the
sources and limitations of forecast uncertainty using available hindcast
data. Assess current prediction methodologies.
Duration: 2 years
Funding: Needed
- WG-4:
Diurnal Variability (joint with POS)
- Objectives: Better understand
and improve representation of diurnal variability in dynamical models
through parameterization/sensitivity tests and simulation experiments
Duration: 2 years
Funding: Needed
Process Studies and
Model Improvement Panel |
Mission Statement: To research
underlying uncertainties in models and physics and to improve the delivery
of climate science
PSMI GOALS
- Reduce major systematic errors and biases in GCMs used for climate
variability prediction and climate change projection
- Climate variability prediction
includes subseasonal-to-decadal timescale prediction and simulations.
Beyond decadal timescales, simulations must use uncertain forcings
(e.g. for anthropogenic CO2) and are described as projections. Systematic
errors and biases of concern are those that exist in multiple climate
models.
Major errors
are those
which
have a large impact on climate simulations. Established examples include:
representation of stratocumulus, eastern ocean boundary SST, excessive
cold tongue, double ITCZ, weak tropical variability, storm track
placement and variations, and mid-latitude air-sea interaction.
- Use process studies to quantify climatically important processes and
to provide guidance for extending long-term in situ and satellite observations
- In addition to their primary
function of improving understanding of key processes, process studies
should be designed to leave a continuing legacy for the overall climate
observational record. This legacy can include: (a) guidance for placement
of long-term sparse observing platforms; (b) calibration of satellite
products, enabling extension of the climate record into the past through
existing satellite data.
- Ensure that process studies lead to climate model improvement
- Many field programs explore
climatically important processes, combining in situ and remote observations
on a variety of scales. Combined with
process models, these can develop understanding of the process. Our goal
is to ensure that this understanding translates into improved climate
GCMs. That may involve: consultation on process study design, recommendation
for supplemental modeling and/or field activities, and guidance for
climate process teams.
- Facilitate
collaborations with other national and international partners such as international
CLIVAR, GEWEX, OCCC.
- We welcome and value the opportunity to collaborate with other programs
on modeling and observational activities of mutual interest and recognize
that these opportunities can result in leveraged resources and added
scientific benefits.
ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF GOALS (Next 1-3 years using only existing resources
and leveraging)
- GOAL 1
- Encourage, support and foster
community activities to reduce tropical biases.
- Co-sponsor workshop on
Tropical Biases
- Initiate new working group on Subseasonal Variability
- Encourage assessment
of IPCC model errors through analysis of CMEP results and develop strategy
for responding to results
- GOAL 2
- Provide feedback to OceanSITES
group for sustained observations based upon process studies’ findings
- Assessment of satellite and remote sensing products and feedback to
satellite and remote sensing teams
- Establish connection with NASA and NPOESS to enhance opportunities
for constructive observing system design
- GOAL 3
- CPT and CPT-like activities
- Ensure that appropriate modeling activities
are included in process studies
- Compile master list of climatologically
important process studies and integrated data sets that can be used
for model development activities
- GOAL 4
- Initiate a joint working group with GEWEX on diurnal cycle of convection
and coordinate with existing diurnal cycle activities
- Panel advocacy
- Liaison and coordination
of activities with partner programs
ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF GOALS (Next 1-3 years using only existing resources
and leveraging and next 3-5 years and beyond)
- GOAL 1
- Identify additional areas of major systematic bias where new process
studies are required to make progress (NOAA/NSF/NASA)
- Support process
studies for understanding and reducing climatically important model
errors and uncertainties. (NOAA/NSF/NASA)
- Support Climate Process Teams and CPT-like teams
(NSF/NOAA)
- GOAL 2
- GOAL 3
- Facilitate infrastructure,
especially manpower resources, (internal and external to modeling centers)
for model development activities
- GOAL 4
ACTION ITEMS in support
of the above GOALS
- GOAL 1
- Attend Tropical Bias Meeting (Schopf,
Large, Pan,), co-sponsor TB Workshop
(Legler), Sept 2005
- Initiate Subseasonal working group,
develop TOR, resource request (Walliser)
- Review Process Studies Sci&Impl
plans, SSC review & responses;
recommend action for progressing (VOCALS: Schopf, PUMP: Xie, AMI:
Hack, DIMES: Ferrari) by Fall 2005; collect & distribute info (Cronin)
by Sep 2005
- Develop plans for reviewing CPTs (Legg,
Ferrari)
- Encourage assessment
of IPCC model errors through analysis of CMEP results and develop strategy
for responding to results (Legg)
- GOAL 2
- Compile feedback for OceanSITES group (all) by Feb 2006
- Compile assessments
of satellite and remote sensing products (all) by Summit 2006
- Establish
connection with NASA and NPOESS to enhance opportunities for constructive
observing system design
- GOAL 3
- CPT review (Legg, Ferrari) by Fall 2005
- Review modeling activity in
funded process studies (EPIC, KESS: Xie, Cronin; CLIMODE: Xie, Joyce;
NAME, MESA: Johnson, Sperber) by Summit2006
- Compile master list of climatologically
important process studies and integrated data sets that can be used for
model development activities
(Legg, Cronin) by Summit2006
- Develop strategy for facilitating
infrastructure for model development activities (Large, Pan, Schopf,
Hack, Legg,…) by Summit2006
- GOAL 4
- Meet with IAG for planning PSMIP activities (Schopf,
Cronin) by Feb
2006
- Participate in AMS Town Hall Meeting (Cronin,
Schopf) Jan 2006
- Contribute
text to BAMS article on US CLIVAR PSMIP goals and activities (Cronin,
Schopf et al) by Spring 2006
- Determine potential for collaboration/coordination
of process studies (OCCC: Cronin, Joyce, GEWEX: Sperber) by Fall 2005
- Initiate
joint CLIVAR/GEWEX WG on Diurnal Cycle of Convection, develop TOR,
request for resources (Sperber) by Summit2006
Proposed Working Groups
- WG-1: Subseasonal
Variability
See Duane Waliser for TOR, required support, and expected deliverables
- WG-2 Diurnal
Cycle of Convection (joint with GEWEX)
See Ken Sperber for TOR, required support, and expected deliverables.
- WG-3
Ocean Model Development
See Eric Chassignet and Robert Hallberg for TOR, required support, and expected
deliverables.
Phenomena,
Observations and Synthesis Panel |
Mission Statement: To improve the understanding of climate
variations in the past, present, and future; develop syntheses of critical
climate parameters; and sustain/improve the global climate observational system
POS GOALS
- Phenomena - Advance
understanding of the structure and mechanisms of climate variability in
the past, present and future. Priorities
include:
- Climate Change: Detection, Attribution
- Regional hydroclimate variability:
Droughts, Monsoons, Western Water
- Role of Tropical Oceans in Global
Climate
- Climate variability modes (ENSO, PDV, TAV, NAO, Annular modes,
MJO) and their interaction in 20th Century observations and simulations
- Observations
- Sustain
and improve the Global Climate Observing System and the US Climate Reference
Network
- Maintain continuity of satellite altimetry and climate data records
- Help achieve current deployment objectives (Aquarius, ARGO, hydrography,
WSOA, GPM)
- Expand the US Climate Reference Network
- Help plan future
observing systems: remote sensing of sea ice, observing system simulation
experiments, sensitivity analysis
- Synthesis - Improve
and Develop consistent ocean-atmosphere-land data sets for climate studies:
Climate Data Assimilation
- Reanalysis for climate studies (ocean, atmosphere, land, coupled)
- Large-scale
synthesis of ocean and ocean-atmosphere observations (data only)
- Development
of coupled data assimilation techniques
ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF
GOALS (Next 1-3 years using only existing resources and leveraging)
- GOAL
1
- Arctic climate change analysis:
International Polar Year activity; In collaboration with SEARCH & CLiC
- Origin of North American Droughts:
Role of ocean-atmosphere .vs. land-atmosphere processes; CLIVAR-GEWEX
coordinated research
- Role of Indian Ocean in global climate: Analysis;
sampling strategies
- Pacific Decadal Variability
- Troposphere-Stratosphere interaction: CLIVAR-SPARC
coordinated research
- Interaction of modes of climate variability in observations
and models (e.g., IPCC simulations)
- Extreme weather and relation to climate
change
- Climate change in the paleo
record: Abrupt, 1K, 10K, 100K …
- GOAL 2
- Maintain continuity
- Transitions (altimetry
to NPOESS etc…)
- Climate data records
(SST, surface winds, altimetry,…_)
- Monitor high latitude processes
- coordinate with IPY (2007-09), SEARCH, CliC
- Achieve current deployment
objectives
- Argo array, flux buoys, hydrography
- Satellites - Aquarius (salinity),
WSOA (wide swath altimeter), GPM (Global Precipitation Mission),
HYDROS (soil moisture)
- Expand the US Climate Reference Network; modernize the
US Historical Climatology Network
- Plan future observing system needs
- Remote sensing of Sea
ice parameters: thickness……
- OSSE’s (Observing System Simulation Experiments) – e.g
MOC
- Sensitivity analysis, influential regions and variables
- GOAL 3
- Reanalysis for climate studies (ocean, atmosphere, land, coupled).
- Lessons
from CLIVAR field programs
- Emphasise improvement of surface fluxes
- Assess impact of COSMIC data
on reanalysis
- Large-scale synthesis of ocean and ocean/atmosphere
observations (data only)
- Development of Coupled Data Assimilation
techniques
ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF
GOALS (Next 1-3 years using only existing resources and leveraging and next
3-5 years and beyond)
- GOAL
3
- Coupled reanalysis for Climate Studies
- with emphasis on improvement
of air-sea and atmosphere-land fluxes.
- Develop infrastructure for
sustaining climate reanalyses
- with links to carbon, biogeochemistry,
ecosystems
- Analysis of synthesized data sets for studies of climate
variability
ACTION ITEMS in support
of the above GOALS
- GOAL
1 - Phenomena
- Proposed AGU Session on the Role of Circulation in Region Hydroclimate
Variability at the 2006 Spring meeting; to forge greater links between
US CLIVAR and GEWEX
- Proposed working group on Droughts (with PPAI)
- Chapman Conference on
Jets and Annular Modes (January 2006; Walter Robinson, Convenor)
- Proposed
working group on Polar Climate (with PSMI)
- Spin up activities on Pacific
Decadal Variability
- GOAL
2 - Observations
- provided input to NRC’s
Decadal survey on Satellite Observations (Sarah Gille)
- monitor transitions of altimetry to NPOESS
- lobby for Aquarius, WSOA,
HYDROS
- lobby in support of high-latitude process studies (e.g. DIMES)
- coordinate
with IPY (2007-09), SEARCH, CliC
- GOAL
3 - Synthesis
- Develop roadmap/timeline and required resources for developing capabilities,
data sets, infrastructure for reanalysis of atmosphere, ocean, ice, land,
for climate applications
- Advocacy of synthesis plan
- Organize workshop on the coupled atmosphere-ocean
assimilation/synthesis problem for climate
- Organize meetings of POS
representatives with agencies – particularly
NASA, NOAA and DOE.
- GOAL
4 - Coordination and representation
- Other US panels; CLIVAR,
e.g. TAV, AMMA
- International CLIVAR; TACE;
COPES/WOAP, etc...
Proposed Working Groups
- WG-1:
Salinity (active)
- WG-2:
Coupled Data Assimilation
- WG-3:
Drought (with PPAI) (Schubert, Gutzler, Nigam)
- WG-4:
Pacific Decadal Variability
- WG-5:
Polar Climate (with PSMI)
- WG-6:
Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction (with SPARC)
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This page last updated
March 14, 2006
Please E-mail questions or comments to usco@usclivar.org
