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The U.S. contribution to
Climate Variability and Predictability
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May
14, 2004
U.S. CLIVAR
CLIMATE MODEL EVALUATION PROJECT (CMEP)
NSF, NOAA,
NASA and DOE plan to grant 10-15 one-year awards at $25,000 as supplements
or small grants to PIs to support diagnostic analyses leading to the evaluation
of U.S. coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th - 20th century.
The objective is to increase community-wide diagnostic research into the quality
of model simulations, leading to more robust evaluations of model predictions
and a better quantification of uncertainty in projections of future climate.
The results of this research will be used for the subsequent evaluations of
the quality of U.S. model global and regional climate projections of the 21st
century and beyond in the context of an international multi-model dataset.
Groups in the U.S. and internationally are conducting late 19th - 20th century
simulation experiments and 21st - 23rd century projection experiments for assessment
in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The late 19th - 20th century simulations
will be available in September 2004, from roughly fourteen modeling groups
worldwide, including, for the U.S., NCAR, GFDL and GISS. These Centers and
the funding agencies invite climate scientists to propose diagnostic studies
to use existing observational datasets to evaluate the simulations, on regional,
sectoral, and/or global domains and for variability and/or trends, including
extreme events. Model output and selected observational data sets for the research
will be available from PCMDI. Table 1 lists the model simulation data sets
that will be available, the anticipated date they will be available, and a
contact point. The research to be funded is expected to commence in September
2004. Successful PIs will be expected to participate in and discuss their results
at a workshop to be convened in March 2005 (see attachment A).
Since
the same climate models will project 21st – 23rd century climate, it
is anticipated that the results of the diagnostic studies of their late 19th
- 20th century simulations, funded under this opportunity, will aid in understanding
and assessing the uncertainty of the future climate change projections for
the IPCC AR4 at global and regional scales.
Eligibility
Any investigator from a U.S. institution, government, or non-government, is
eligible, except those from either of the four participating centers:
NCAR, GFDL, GISS, and PCMDI. Collaboration with principal scientists
in these centers (CCSM, GFDL, GISS, PCMDI) is encouraged. However, funding
for PIs in these centers (if required) is outside this competition and
is not guaranteed. PIs from the centers should contact program mangers
from their respective agencies for guidance.
Proposals
Proposals must be responsive to the objective and goals outlined above and
the requirements and publication schedule described in Attachment A.
The proposals must include
a. A project summary 1 page or less
b. Project description 5 pages, including
a work plan and time line,
figures and references,
d. Budget
c. CV(s)
The five-page project description should focus on what will be done and how,
rather than include general background science.
Budgets must be no more than $25,000 (except under extraordinary circumstances
that must be justified). Travel funds for the March 2005 workshop should not
be included in the proposal budget; they will be provided separately. At least
one U.S. modeling center’s simulations must be analyzed. More than one
is encouraged. The analyses of non-U.S. modeling center simulations may also
be included in the work plan. The agencies will attempt to make available funding
for follow up research on the multi-century projections, either through a new
competition in FY 2005 or 2006, or supplemental funding to successful PIs in
this competition.
Proposals should be sent INFORMALLY by email (PDF format) to Cathy Stephens,
at the US CLIVAR PO, cmep@usclivar.org,
by no later than 5 pm EDT, June 10, 2004. DO NOT SUBMIT THE PROPOSAL TO A FUNDING
AGENCY AT THIS TIME. Successful PIs will be invited to submit full proposals
to the funding agencies on July 1, 2004.
Review
The proposals will be reviewed by the US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee
and representatives of the NCAR (CCSM), GFDL, GISS and PCMDI centers. Their
recommendations will be provided to the funding agencies for their funding
deliberations.
Schedule
Informal proposals due by June 10, 2004. Please transmit as a PDF file.
**Informal proposals refer to scientific content without
authorized signatures and forms.**
Successful PIs informed by July 1, 2004
Formal proposals submitted by July 10, 2004
** Formal proposals will require all authorized signatures
and NSF forms. The scientific content should remain the same as in the informal
proposals. **
Grants awarded in early September 2004.
Questions should be addressed to jfein@nsf.gov
ATTACHMENT
A
Successful PIs will be expected to participate and discuss their results in
a workshop to be convened in March 2005. In late summer 2004, PIs will be asked
to register with the WGCM Climate Simulation Panel by sending an email to IPCC_analysis@ucar.edu briefly
stating their research project and anticipated results. The Panel will compile
a list of PIs and topics to furnish the IPCC chapter lead authors in September
2004. PIs are expected to participate in the International Workshop on Analyses
of Climate Model Simulations for the IPCC AR4.
The workshop will be held from March 1 - 4, 2005, and will be convened by U.S.
CLIVAR and hosted by the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) at the
University of Hawaii in Honolulu. Scientific papers
describing the results of the multi-model analyses for IPCC will be presented
at the workshop. There will be a workshop report summarizing the presentations
that will be furnished to the lead authors of the relevant chapters for the
AR4. Results from the analysis projects must then be written up by the respective
investigators, and submitted to peer-reviewed journals by the time of the Second
IPCC Lead Author Meeting in May 2005, in order to be fully included and assessed
in the AR4 as specified by the guidelines of IPCC. Details will be posted on
the CMIP web page (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip/).
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This page last updated
May 30, 2007
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