The U.S. contribution to
Climate Variability and Predictability
|
The U.S. contribution to Climate Variability and Predictability |
31
January – 2 February 2005
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
at the
University of Miami
Draft Agenda
REMT
Session (What are the local versus remote processes in Atlantic-basin
variability) |
|
| 0900 - 0910 | Introduction to meeting, to session, and to first speaker (Robinson) |
0910 - 1000 |
Saravanan, R (NCAR) Does local air-sea coupling matter in the Atlantic? |
| 1000 - 1020 | Liu, Zhengyu (Univ. of Wisconsin) Remote Impact on Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability: Statistical Assessment and Dynamical Assessment |
| 1020 - 1035 | BREAK |
Influences of ENSO |
|
| 1035 - 1055 | Penland, Cecile (NOAA-CIRES/CDC) Further results on El Nino signals in tropical Atlantic SSTs |
| 1055 - 1115 | Kushnir, Yochanan (LDEO/Columbia University) The relationships between Equatorial Atlantic SST variability and El Nino |
| 1115 - 1135 | Keenlyside, Noel (Liebniz Inst. Fur Meteorogie) Equatorial Atlantic interannual variability and its relation to ENSO |
| 1135 - 1155 | Enfield, David (NOAA-AOML) The tropical Atlantic extension of El Nino: How is it forced and why does it not always respond? |
| 1155 - 1215 | Discussion: What are the open questions in ENSO influence on the tropical Atlantic? What observations/models are needed to answer them? |
| 1215 - 1330 | LUNCH |
Internal ocean dynamics in the tropical Atlantic |
|
| 1330 - 1350 | Murtugudde, Ragu (MIT) The mixed layer heat budget of the tropical Atlantic |
| 1350 - 1410 | Yang, Jiayan (WHOI) Local and equatorial forcing of seasonal variability of the north equatorial countercurrent in the Atlantic Ocean |
| 1410 - 1430 | Rodrigues, Regina (University of Rhode Island) A numerical study of the bifurcation of the South Equatorial Current in the Atlantic Ocean |
| 1430 - 1450 | Bonjean, Fabrice (Earth and Space Research) Climatic impacts of interannual surface current variations in the Equatorial Atlantic |
| 1450 - 1510 | Discussion: How can we better assess the importance of these internal ocean processes for TAV? |
| 1510 - 1530 | BREAK |
Locally coupled processes in tropical Atlantic variability |
|
| 1530 - 1550 | Foltz, Gregory (NOAA-PMEL) Intraseasonal oscillations in the tropical Atlantic |
| 1550 - 1610 | Huang, Bohua (GMU/COLA) The influences of the Ocean-Atmosphere mean climatology on the tropical Atlantic variability |
| 1610 - 1630 | Aiyyer, Anatha (SUNY Albany) Variability of vertical shear within the North Atlantic |
| 1630 - 1650 | Chiang, John (UC Berkeley) Does the tropical Pacific possess climate variability analogous to the tropical Atlantic "meridional mode"? |
| 1650 - 1710 | Discussion: How do local air-sea processes in the tropical Atlantic interact with remote influences? |
| 1710 - 1840 | POSTER RECEPTION (Cash bar) |
POSTERS |
|
| Fairall, Chris | REMT -1 Local forcing of the surface heat budget of the equatorial East Pacific |
| Fu, Lee-Lueng | REMT
-2 The interannual variability of the North Atlantic Ocean revealed
by combined
data from TOPEX/Poseidon and JASON altimetric measurements |
| Hagos, Samson | REMT -3 Influences of surface processes over Africa on the Atlantic marine ITCZ |
| Huang, Huei-Ping | REMT -4 Atlantic SST gradient and influence of ENSO |
| Lee, Sang-Ki | REMT -5 OGCM study of the Western Hemisphere warm pool |
| Munnich, Matthias | REMT -6 Equatorial Atlantic SST Variability and its relationship to ENSO and precipitation |
| Pan, Lin-Lin | REMT -7 Dynamic coupling between NAO and North Atlantic SST tripole |
| Raymond, David | REMT - 8 Variability of Tropical Depression Formation in the Eastern Atlantic and Eastern Pacific |
| Reason, Chris | REMT - 9 Local and remote forcing of South Atlantic climate variability |
| Chiang, John | REMT -10 Sensitivity of Atlantic ITCZ to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions |
| Zhao, Bin | REMT -11 Mechanisms of interannual thermal variability in the North Atlantic during 1950-1999: an ocean GCM study |
PRED
Session (How predictable is Atlantic variability on seasonl-to-internannual
timescales?) TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2005 (Andrew Robertson, Chair) |
|
| 0830 - 1000 | POSTERS/BREAKFAST |
1000 - 1010 |
Introduction to Session (Robertson) |
| 1010 - 1050 | Goddard, Lisa (IRI) Predictability versus Prediction-ability in the Tropical Atlantic Region |
Tropical
processes with relevance to prediction |
|
| 1050 - 1110 | Cook, Kerry (Cornell University) Contributions of African Easterly Waves to Tropical Atlantic Variability |
| 1110 - 1130 | Helber, Robert (University of South Florida) Satellite derived surface current divergence in relation to Tropical Atlantic SST and wind |
| 1130 - 1150 | Okumura, Yuko (University of Hawaii) Overlooked November-December cooling of the Equatorial Atlantic and its effects on interannual variability and predictability |
| 1150 - 1210 | Zhang, Chidong (RSMAS/University of Miami) African Aerosol: External forcing or an integral component of the Tropical Atlantic Climate System? |
| 1210 - 1230 | Discussion: TAV process and prediction issues |
| 1230 - 1340 | LUNCH |
Extratropical
processes with relevance to prediction |
|
| 1340 - 1400 | Peng, Shiling (NOAA-CIRES/CDC) Tropical Atlantic forcing of coupled North Atlantic seasonal responses |
| 1400 - 1420 | Kelly, Kathryn (University of Washington) The Northern Hemisphere Annular Ocean Mode: Coherent heat transport fluctuations force air-sea heat exchange |
| 1420 - 1440 | Baldwin, Mark (Northwest Research Associates) Predicting the NAO: Role of the statosphere |
| 1440 - 1500 | Arkin, Philip (ESSIC, University of Maryland) Seasonal and interannual variations of cloudiness and precipitation over Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent land areas |
| 1500 - 1520 | Discussion: Extra-tropical prediction issues |
| 1520 - 1540 | BREAK |
Prediction
Studies |
|
| 1540 - 1600 | Chang, Ping (Texas A&M) Dynamical elements of predicting boreal spring Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures |
| 1600 - 1620 | Seidel, Howard (Texas A&M) A study of tropical Atlantic variability with a high-resolution, regional coupled climate model |
| 1620 - 1640 | Carton, Jim (University of Maryland) Relationship of the tropical Atlantic to West African Rainfall in the NCEP coupled model |
| 1640 - 1700 | Ndiaye, Ousmane (Columbia University) Using tropical Atlantic circulation to predict Sahel rainfall |
POSTERS |
|
| Biasutti, Michela | PRED -1 The causes of tropical Atlantic precipitation biases in AGCMs: in search of a comprehensive diagnosis |
| Drumond, Anita | PRED -2 South America and Central South Africa Precipitation Variability Associated to the South Atlantic Ocean |
| Fu, Rong | PRED -3 The influences of South American rainfall on the climate variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean |
| Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola | PRED -4 Internal variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean |
| Hazeleger, Wilco | PRED -5 Sensitivity of tropical Atlantic climate to vertical mixing |
| Kushnir, Yochanan | PRED -6 The Physical Basis for Predicting Atlantic Sector Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability |
| Mestas-Nunez, Alberto | PRED - 7 Moisture fluxes over the Intra-Americas Seas |
| Norrant, C | PRED - 8 Predictability of monthly precipitation in the Mediterranean Basin |
| Nobre, Paulo | PRED -9 The PIRATA SW Extension |
| Grodsky, Semyon | PRED -10 Tropical instability waves at 0N, 23W in the Atlantic. A case study using the PIRATA mooring data |
| Prospero, Jose | PRED -11 The long-term variability of African dust transport across the Atlantic and the link to climate |
| Rizzoli, Paola | PRED - 12 The impact of horizontal resolution on the tropical heat budget in an Atlantic Ocean model |
| Thorncroft, Chris | PRED - 13 Three Dimensional Structure of Easterly Wave Disturbances over Africa and the Tropical North Atlantic |
| Yu, Lisan | PRED -14 Atlantic air-sea heat fluxes in the 1990s and their connection to basin-scale atmospheric and oceanic variations |
| Xue, Yan | PRED - 15 A Study of Tropical Atlantic Variability using NCEP's Global Ocean Data Assimilation System |
| Kushnir, Yochanan and Zhang, Chidong | PRED -16 AMI-PROS: A Study of Climate Processes in the Atlantic Marine ITCZ |
| Stockdale, Tim | PRED -17 Tropical Atlantic SST prediction with coupled multi-model ensembles |
TRND
Session (What are the trends and long time scale modes of Atlantic
basin climate) WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2005 (Susan Lozier, Chair) |
|
| 0830 - 1000 | POSTERS/BREAKFAST |
1000 - 1005 |
Introduction to Session (Lozier) |
| 1005 - 1045 | Jean Lynch-Steiglitz (LDEO) |
TRND
I: MOC and Meridional Transport |
|
| 1045 - 1105 | Meinen, Chris The Florida Current: Long term measurements of the transport of the upper limb Meridional Overturning Cell |
| 1105 - 1125 | Straneo, Fiamma (WHOI) The response of the Labrador Sea to a variable atmosphere and ocean |
| 1125 - 1145 | Lumpkin, Rick (NOAA-AOML) Transport variability across 48N in the Atlantic Ocean |
| 1145 - 1205 | Garzoli, Silvia (NOAA-AOML) Meridional heat transport in the south Atlantic |
| 1205 - 1225 | Discussion: MOC and Transport Issues |
| 1225 - 1330 | LUNCH |
TRND
II: Basin Scale Changes |
|
| 1330 - 1350 | Lozier, Susan (Duke University) The spatial pattern of North Atlantic warming over the past fifty years |
| 1350 - 1410 | Wu, Lixin (University of Wisconsin) North Atlantic Decadal Variability: Air-Sea Coupling, Oceanic Memory and Potential Northern Hemisphere Resonance |
| 1410 - 1430 | Halliwell, George (University of Maimi) Atlantic Ocean model response to realistic NAO-related atmospheric forcing at Quasi- to Multi-decadal periods |
| 1430 - 1450 | Zhang, Rong(GFDL/ APS Program) Simulated global response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation |
| 1450 - 1510 | Discussion: Basin Scale Changes |
| 1510 - 1530 | BREAK |
TRND
III: Tropical Atlantic Variability |
|
| 1530 - 1550 | Zhang, Dongxiao (JIASO/UW and NOAA/PMEL) Decadal changes in the Tropical Atlantic pycnocline |
| 1550 - 1610 | Kroger, J., Busalacchi, Antonio (ESSIC, University of Maryland) Decadal variability of shallow cells and dquatorial SST in a numerical model of the Atlantic |
| 1610 - 1630 | Landsea, Chris (NOAA/Hurrican Research Center) The busy 2004 Atlantic Hurrican Season: Was it an anomaly, trend or cycle? |
| 1630 - 1645 | Discussion: Tropical Atlantic Variability |
POSTERS |
|
| Boscolo, Roberta | TRND - 1 Climate Variability and Predictability over the Atlantic Sector |
| Fine, Rana | TRND - 2 An Inside passage for NADW |
| Hopsch, Susanna | TRND - 3 Variability of West African Storm Tracks and their relationship with Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity |
| Johns, William | TRND - 4 An Observing System to Monitor the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat Flux at 26N |
| TRND - 5 The response of the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans to the Northern Annular Mode | |
| Laurian, Audine | TRND - 6 Propogation of salinity anomalies from the North Atlantic subtropics to the high latitudes |
| McClean, Julie | TRND - 7 Interannual variability of the North Atlantic and GIN Seas two high-resolution ocean models |
| Meinen, Christopher | TRND - 8 The Florida Current: Long term measurements of the transport of the upper limb Meridional Overturning Cell |
| Dengler, Marcus | TRND - 9 Deep boundary current circulation and variability in the western subpolar North Atlantic |
| Bentamy, Abderrahim | TRND -10 Improved estimates of net air-sea fluxes over the Atlantic Ocean |
| Boccaletti, Giulio, Ferrari, R., Adcroft, A., Marshall, John | TRND - 11 The vertical structure of ocean heat transport |
| D'Andrea, F.; Czaja, Aunaud, Marshall, John | TRND - 12 Impact of anomalous ocean heat transport on the NAO |
| Wang, Chunzai | TRND - 13 Subthermocline Tropical Cells and Equatorial Subsurface Countercurrents |
| Peterson, Larry | TRND - 14 Climate and hydrologic conditions over northernmost South America on interannual to oribital time-scales as recorded in Cariaco Basin sediments |
| Coles, Victoria | TRND - 15 |
| Boning, Claus | TRND -16 The German Sonderforshungsbereich 460: Dynamics of thermohaline circulation variability |
